Immigration Debate

The H1B visa filing day of April 1, 2009, for the H1B visa fiscal year 2010 (October 1, 2009, start date) is quickly approaching and many people are attempting to predict how quickly the cap will be filled up.  The obvious issue at play in making this year more difficult to predict than in prior years, is the economic situation in the United States. 

The economic situation in the United States has caused a significant downturn in employment, which in turn impacts the available options for foreign nationals who are seeking to secure an H1B visa with a willing and able petitioning employer.  In addition, the financial services’ companies have been hit hard not just from a financial standpoint, but also from a hiring standpoint as it relates to their ability to hire H1B candidates.  As a result of the stimulus bill, financial institutions who have received bailout funds have been subject to hiring limitations in connection with H1B workers.  More specifically , the bill subjects the financial institutions who are the recipients of bailout funds to the rules of being a dependent H1B employer, which means that before hiring a foreign H1B worker they must determine that a U.S. worker is not available for the job.  This has essentially barred financial institutions from hiring H1B workers.  In fact, the recent changes made it necessary for Bank of America to rescind job offers made to prospective H1B workers.  Other financial services companies may also have to follow suit.

Taking the above into consideration, many immigration practitioners are seeing a sharp decline in the interest in the H1B visa this year by potential employers and workers.  Some are saying that the downturn in H1B applications this year could be as much as 50%-80%, while others see only a 30% decline.  As a result of this decline, there are predictions that the quota will not be reached within the first few days of April this year.  Rather, many suspect that the bachelor’s quota won’t be reached until the middle of April and that the master’s quota won’t be reached until late April.

From an immigration practitioner’s point of view this is obviously disappointing, as it translates to less work.  From a foreign worker’s perspective who has an H1B position lined up, this presents somewhat of an opportunity that hopefully his or her odds of obtaining the H1B visa will be better this year compared to last year.  From a foreign worker’s perspective who doesn’t yet have a position lined up, you may have a bit more time to find a job than in prior years.  However, this extra time is not a sure thing and may only amount to a week or two.

In conclusion, the H1B visa filing program this year will most likely play out a bit differently than it has in years past.  It will impact all of us involved and will no doubt be interesting to watch as it unfolds in April.